Alpha Court Thesis-Result-Score Walkthrough — 2026-05-29

이 artifact는 Alpha Court가 예측을 잘한다는 증거가 아니다. Alpha Court를 공개적으로 설명할 때 필요한 최소 proof contract를 먼저 고정하는 문서다.

Allowed claim: Alpha Court에는 예측 1건을 thesis -> evidence -> result -> score -> retrospective로 닫기 위한 공개 가능한 계약이 있다.

Forbidden claim: Alpha Court가 투자 성과, 예측 정확도, 분석가 실력, 사용자 채택, 매출, 또는 시장 검증을 이미 입증했다는 주장은 하지 않는다.

Claim

Alpha Court의 공개 proof는 “사이트가 열린다”에서 멈추면 안 된다. 한 예측이 언제 작성됐고, 어떤 thesis와 evidence를 가졌고, 어떤 resolution 기준으로 닫혔고, 어떤 score rule로 평가됐고, 사후 회고가 무엇이었는지 보여줘야 한다.

Verified Originals

source	Source class	operating grammar extracted	cannot support
Metaculus question-writing guidelines	forecasting platform documentation	예측 질문은 resolution criteria, dates, source of resolution, edge cases, neutral wording이 먼저 고정돼야 한다.	Alpha Court의 예측 정확도나 커뮤니티 채택을 증명하지 않는다.
Gneiting & Raftery, Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation	peer-reviewed forecasting/statistics paper	score는 prediction과 실제 outcome을 함께 받아야 의미가 있고, proper scoring rule은 정직한 확률 예측을 유도하도록 설계된다.	Alpha Court의 실제 scoring formula가 타당하다는 증명은 아니다.
Metaculus Scores FAQ	forecasting platform scoring documentation	scoring rule은 prediction과 outcome으로 숫자 점수를 만들고, proper score는 평균적으로 진짜 믿음을 말하게 하는 인센티브를 만든다.	Metaculus의 점수 체계를 Alpha Court가 그대로 쓴다는 뜻은 아니다.
W3C PROV Overview	provenance model	증거는 entity, activity, agent, derivation, source를 분리해 추적해야 한다.	provenance 구조가 truth나 financial value를 자동으로 증명하지 않는다.
Stack Overflow reputation help	community reputation documentation	reputation은 과거 기여를 바탕으로 community trust와 privileges를 조정하는 proxy로 쓰일 수 있다.	Alpha Court 분석가의 투자 실력이나 조작 저항성을 증명하지 않는다.
SEC Investment Adviser Marketing guide	regulatory guidance	성과, 추천, ranking, benefit 표현은 오해를 만들지 않도록 substantiation, risk/limitation, fair balance가 필요하다.	이 문서는 Alpha Court의 법률 자문이나 compliance 판정이 아니다. 보수적 redline 참고다.

Ontology Impact Map

object	role in Alpha Court proof
`Analyst`	thesis를 작성하고 prediction을 제출한 주체. 공개 artifact에서는 role 또는 redacted handle만 둔다.
`Thesis`	예측의 핵심 주장. 결과가 나온 뒤 바꿀 수 없다.
`Evidence`	thesis 작성 시점에 사용한 출처와 관찰. 사후 근거 추가와 분리한다.
`Prediction`	probability/confidence, created_at, close_at, resolve_at, resolution criteria를 가진 기록.
`Result`	사전에 정한 source와 criteria로 닫힌 outcome.
`Score`	사전에 정한 scoring rule로 계산된 평가값.
`Retrospective`	맞았는지보다 왜 맞거나 틀렸는지 기록하는 사후 회고.
`Rank`	여러 closed predictions가 있을 때만 집계 가능하다. 단일 artifact에서는 ranking을 주장하지 않는다.
`Reputation`	반복 결과가 쌓인 뒤에만 조심스럽게 사용할 수 있는 trust proxy.
`ClaimBoundary`	이 artifact가 허용하는 주장과 금지하는 주장을 분리한다.

Commands / Redlines

command	redline
Every prediction must have a thesis before it has a score.	No score without original thesis.
Every prediction must name resolution criteria and result source before resolution.	No hindsight resolution rule.
Every score must name the scoring rule and input values.	No score without result.
Every analyst reputation claim must cite a set of closed predictions.	No authority claim from one example.
Every public artifact must state what it does not prove.	No forecast quality, adoption, or investment-performance claim from a walkthrough.

Output Contract

[ALPHA-COURT-PREDICTION-PROOF]

claim:
prediction_id:
created_at:
closed_at:
resolved_at:
analyst_role:
thesis:
prediction_value:
confidence_or_probability:
evidence_inputs:
verified_originals:
resolution_criteria:
result_source:
result:
score_rubric:
score_inputs:
score_value:
retrospective:
ranking_effect:
redaction_policy:
failure_modes:
claim_boundary:
screenshots_or_transcript:
validation_commands:
next_artifact:

Public-Safe Walkthrough Skeleton

This skeleton is intentionally contract-level. It does not include live beta data.

field	public-safe value
claim	A single Alpha Court prediction can be represented as thesis, evidence, result, score, and retrospective.
prediction_id	`AC-PUBLIC-SAFE-CONTRACT-001`
created_at	Redacted until a real closed run is published.
analyst_role	Redacted analyst role, not a named investment adviser claim.
thesis	The analyst states the expected outcome and the reason before the result is known.
evidence_inputs	Original links, data snapshots, or internal notes available at creation time.
resolution_criteria	The exact date, source, and edge-case handling used to resolve the prediction.
result	Redacted until a real closed run is published.
score_rubric	Pre-declared rule. Example families can be proper scoring rules, but Alpha Court must disclose its exact rule before claiming a score.
score_value	Not computed in this contract artifact.
retrospective	What the analyst learned, what evidence was missing, and what would change next time.
ranking_effect	None in this artifact. Ranking needs multiple closed predictions and anti-gaming review.
redaction_policy	Hide private user data, account identifiers, non-public market notes, and sensitive screenshots. Keep timestamps, criteria, and scoring inputs where safe.

Claim Boundary

allowed	forbidden
Alpha Court has a public-safe contract for closing a prediction into thesis, evidence, result, score, and retrospective.	Alpha Court has proven forecast quality.
The artifact identifies original sources that shaped the proof design.	The sources validate Alpha Court as a product.
The scoring section explains what a future real score must disclose.	A score exists for a real beta prediction in this artifact.
The reputation section treats rank as a future aggregate, not a current proof.	Alpha Court analysts are proven experts.

Not investment advice. This artifact is a product-proof boundary note, not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold, trade, or rely on any financial instrument.

This is also not predictive accuracy proof. A future artifact must include at least one real closed prediction with redacted thesis, timestamp, result source, scoring inputs, score value, and retrospective before stronger claims are allowed.

Validation

Local validation expected for this artifact:

npm run check:quality
npm run check:routes
npm run check:surface-contracts
npm run check

Memory Update

Alpha Court public claims must be routed through a closed-prediction contract. A live 200 response is not proof. A source-card-backed contract is still not a real closed forecast. The next artifact must be a redacted real beta run, not another framing page.